Notes for Wednesday...

Lesson Outline – Campaigns, Elections, and the Media

First – how many campaigns are running in the area?

Name a few.

Importance of Candidates

Must be more than one – give examples of one-sided races, or races with one strong man and one weak implausible candidate

It’s not always easy to get candidates for every elected position – water control boards, postmaster general, don’t generally have people leaping to be considered

Also, smaller parties and parties that are not likely to win have difficulty finding candidates – might not want to put in the effort, money, time, etc to participate in an election you know you’re going to lose

Ex: Dylan and the Conservative Party ticket

Presidential Primaries – probably the greatest example of American democracy. Colorful characters that have run:

Lamar Alexander – wore plaid everywhere

Steve Forbes

Dennis KUCINICH – (find article, pass out)

Why do they run?

Ask around

Two types: Self-started and appointed

Self-Starters:

Believe that they can solve America’s problems

Also feel that the other candidates/parties will not do anything to fix these issues

Not the only reason for running though

Resume – building – local lawyers/activists might want to move into the bigger political circles, and need a few political offices to get them there

Also – blind ambition leads some to scale impossible heights – Dennis Kucinich, what were his motivations?

It’s an Honor to Be Nominated….

Follow state laws, which favor two largest parties

Candidates submit petitions to local elections board (political parties may assist them in this)

Easier to get on the ballot if you’re a D or R – small parties (Greens, Conservatives, Libertarians, face significant obstacles)

Occasionally, a CAUCUS (small group) may make the final decision on who will stand as a candidate for the party

If this can’t be resolved, then a PRIMARY ELECTION (open only to REGISTERED party members to vote on the candidate). Ex: Mayoral election in NYC, Democrats couldn’t decide, so it was between Alan Hevesi and Mark Green (September 11, 2001)

Eligibility – you can read those.

Do you think 35 years is old enough to be President? Not young enough?

Who are Candidates?

Who do you think winds up being a candidate?

Overwhelmingly white and male – is this representative?

Women as Candidates

In Senate – 14/100 are women (9D, 5R)

In HOR – 59/435 (38D, 21R) – THREE PERCENT OF SEATS

US ranks as #10 on the % of seats held by women candidates

Ahead are: Norway, Iceland, Australia, Luxembourg, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium

Quotas: A certain % of electoral races must be led by women. Would we do better by introducing this system?

Too many lawyers? Lawyers are most drawn to drafting laws – understand legalese, and comprehend the implications of the bill

Also – have more flexible hours, more likely to be involved politically

CAMPAIGNS

Campaigns are also using new technologies, realizing how effective they can be in mobilizing voters and getting the message out

Campaigns are getting longer and longer – even now, it’s 2006, and we’re already getting ready for the 2008 presidential season. Ex: Wesley Clarke at Wagner (Comparison – in Britain, elections only take six weeks – legally mandated)

Campaigns start earlier now for a few reasons:

Need more money than ever: Presidential campaigns in 2004 cost: $367 m (Bush), $328 m (Kerry)

Already, there is speculation that, in order to be considered as a serious candidate in the 2008 elections, you will have to raise $100 MILLION

What is the money spent for?

Political consultants – who tell candidates how to wage campaign, which states to focus on, which issues to focus on

Political commercials and advertising – costs lots of money, but necessary to reach as many voters as possible, as well as respond to attacks by opponent

Polls – Candidates must conduct their own polls to find where they’re trailing, where they’re winning, etc, in order to plan an effective campaign

Letters, mailings, etc – direct mail is a crucial component of the campaign

Headquarters rent – Spitzer is located in a post Madison Avenue address. This costs serious money.

Campaigning is even more crucial now because of the dealignment of parties – candidates can’t expect party loyalty to propel them to victory any more, they have to reach as many voters as possible

Strategy of Winning

Anyone watch West Wing?

Candidate visibility and appeal – no candidate wins by being invisible. Also, they can’t be a clod. People point to Gore’s stiffness as a reason why he lost the election.

Opinion Polls – candidates are likely to bend their positions to capture the most popular opinion.

Focus groups – small group of individuals who are led in discussion by a professional consultant to gather opinions on/responses to candidates and issues

Usually are segments of population – Urban African-Americans, Protestant Midwest farmers, etc so forth

How do candidates finance the campaign?

Donations, PAC contributions, party contributions, sometimes out-of-pocket from the candidate him/herself

It’s been recognized as a problem for a long time –

Corrupt Practices Acts – tried to limit size of contributions to candidates in campaigns, starting in 1925

Hatch Act of 1939 – restricts political involvement of government employees. Concerned that they were using work hours/influence to get certain people elected

Federal Election Campaign Act - 1971 – you can donate however much you want, but candidates can only spend X amount on television advertising

All contributions over $100 must be disclosed

1974 Reforms:

Federal Election Commission created - must oversee campaign contributions

Public financing is provided for presidential elections - done to make it seem more democratic, that the average man could enter into the race without being a millionaire

Presidential spending is limited

Buckley v. Valeo – decided by the Supreme Court in 1971. Declared the 1971 law unconstitutional – said no law could determine how much a candidate could spend on his own behalf

PACs and Contributions

Support candidates, but in a roundabout way that circumvents existing laws on campaign spending

PACs - committee set up and representing a group (corporation, organization, interest group)

1973 – spent $19 million

1999-2000 – spent $900 million

Soft money – not given directly to candidates, but given to party committees which then funnel the money to candidates

Issue Advocacy Advertising – advertising paid for by interest groups that support or oppose a candidate or his position on an issue without mentioning voting or election

Now the catch is – if it’s going to run in October/Nov of an election year – of COURSE it has to do with elections

Good example: MoveOn.org (hand out print outs)

Do these groups clarify candidates’ positions to the voters?

Independent expenditures - money donated that are not coordinated with a particular candidate – a favorite loophole of candidates. So, “Paid for By Friends of…”

Do you feel that all this backroom financing is an issue for democracy? It’s an open ended question

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002

Banned large, unlimited contributions to political parties (soft money)

Places limits on issue ads placed by outside special interest groups

Consequences

Democratic and Republican parties are no longer protected from growth of smaller parties

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

Reforming the Primaries

1968 Chicago Riots outside DNC – with the escalation of the Vietnam War, voters really felt like parties were not responding to their needs at all

So now – public has more of a say, in determining who will stand as the party rep for president. Ex: Howard Dean was done after Iowa because voters rejected that approach to campaigning

Types of Primaries

Closed primary – only official members of the party may vote.. So, you must be a registered democrat to vote in a closed Democratic primary

Open Primary – open to all voters, regardless of party affiliation

Blanket primary – you can vote for whomever you want for a variety of offices – for instance, you can vote for a Democratic candidate for governor, and a republican candidate for senator

Run-off primary – If nobody emerges as a clear winner in the first primary, they hold a second one.

Campaign strategy

It dawned on candidates that winning as many primaries as possible helps cement their bid for president. Hence, why NH and Iowa become so important

National Convention time –

Credentials Committee – determines which delegates can participate in the convention

Does it really matter? Conventions appear to be more predictable than ever – no “dark horse” candidates emerge anymore

The Big, Bad Electoral College

So the Founding Fathers didn’t trust the public enough to leave the election of the presidency to a popular vote – they set up a system which could, theoretically, prevent a despot from arising to the presidency

There are 538 Electors in total – presidents need 270 to win

How they determine it: States’ number of electors = states’ number of senators (two) plus # of reps

So, CA has 55, Florida has 27, Ill. Has 21, NY has 31, TX has 34

So, typically, the elector can vote however he/she wants – but, if the state votes in favor of a party, all the electoral votes go to that candidate. If NY votes Democratic, Gore gets 31 electoral college votes. There is no splitting.

EC does not always mirror popular vote. Bush in 2000, Ben Harrison in 1888.

Criticisms

Does not accurately reflect the wishes of the people

Critics also argue that the nature of the US government has changed – while it was founded as a “republic,” where representatives made decisions for the citizens, it is now more of a formal “democracy,” where public opinion should be the deciding factor

Elections Themselves

Opted for the “secret ballot,” also known as the Australian ballot – decreases vote manipulation, more people will vote how they really want instead of how their boss, party, family, wants, etc

Two ways that voting can be organized:

Office-block voting – where candidates are listed under the offices they’re seeking (disliked by parties), encourages split-ticket voting

Party-block voting – candidates are grouped by political party

October 8, 2006

News of an unexpected career break could come your way now, jax. This can be very exciting, and should make a bigger difference in your life than you think. However, this is definitely a time when some modesty is called for. If you act too proud or too thrilled, you might excite some envy among your not-so-lucky colleagues, and this could come back to haunt you later. Save your excitement for your family.

Voting by mail

Absentee ballots – when you are physically unable to be in your registered location on election day

But interesting situation in Oregon (discuss)

Increases voter participation

Problems with this – can’t verify who’s actually doing the voting

Also – is the voter informed? Has he/she heard all the candidates?

Vote Fraud

A serious issue, but not easy to prevent

Voting by felons, unregistered voters – very hard to catch in absentee ballots as well

Mistakes by Voting Officials – Kathryn Harris in Florida

Low Voter Turnout – has never been very high in the States. In 2004, 51%. Midterm elections (when a president is not up for election) are even lower.

Effects: Disengagement with politics, change the nature of our government (is it still a democracy is nearly half don’t participate?), possibility of more radical leaders

However, some say low voter turnout just means people are pretty happy with the way things are

Factors Determining Voter Turnout

1. Age - the older you get, the more likely you are to vote.

2. Educational attainment – the higher you get, the more likely you are to vote

3. Minority status – whites still have the highest voter turnout

4. Income level – the wealthier you are, the more likely you are to vote

5. two party competition – how competitive elections are. In hotly contested races, ex: Forrester and Corzine, people are more likely to vote. In less contested races, or races perceived as a runaway (Spitzer vs. Faso), voter turnout will decrease

Why don’t people vote?

Bad media coverage/negative campaigning People get sick of attack ads pretty quickly, and just assume that both candidates are equally unappetizing. Also, lack of real journalism coverage on issues leads voters to be frustrated by elections that don’t deal with real problems

Rational Ignorance Effect If you think your vote will not matter in the end anyway, you will have no motivation to vote.

Improving voter turnout

Internet voting

Absentee ballots

Registering to vote when you apply for a driver’s license

Make Election Day national holiday

Give voters 3 weeks to vote

Voting on Sunday, like they do in most European countries?

Who can vote?

At founding of country, only white males with property

Now, it’s nearly all naturalized citizens over the age of 18

Felons are not allowed to vote – is this a good thing?

REGISTER TO VOTE NOW

Media and Politics

Functions of the media:

1. Entertainment

TV and Radio would be long gone if it didn’t devote hours to entertaining programs – and some of them get political

West Wing, other news coverage of major stories – AIDS, medicare, etc

2. Reporting the news

Gathers information from around the globe to give people a clearer idea of what is happening in the world

Can you imagine a world without a source for news?

3. Identifying public programs

Setting the public agenda – issues perceived by the political community as meriting public attention and governmental action

Media decides what will be discussed in politics, it is claimed. This is why so many interest groups have their own media campaigns to raise awareness of issues.

4. Socializing new generations

Youth and immigrants – are taught by the media how to be Americans.

5. Providing a Political Forum

Politicians need to reach as many voters as they can to be elected – and so use the media for their own ends as well. Chuck Schumer, senior Senator of NY, is very adept at this – he holds a press conference every Sunday, and it’s usually carried by news stations.

6. Making Profits

Advertising revenue is key – so they have to be careful (TV stations, newsmagazines, etc) not to piss off advertisers. Example: SUVs accounted for a substantial amount of Newsweek’s ad revenue, and they couldn’t do a story on carbon emissions from SUVs for years because of it. ALSO – CBS AND TOBACCO (The Insider)

PRIMACY OF TELEVISION

Politicians were not immediately aware of the impact television could have if they used it for their purposes.

News Programming

In the past, only took about an hour of total programming time. But with the advent of 24-hour news channels (CNN in 1980), the big three needed to catch up. Now – 2 hours a day of local news, half hour of national/international.

Interesting tidbit: The total budget of NBC News is 0.5% of the entire GE budget. Yet, international news desks are closing. Go figure.

TV’s Influence

It’s a VISUAL medium – so IMAGES assume a new importance.

Think: Mission Impossible Bush stunt

Also – sound bites reign supreme – quotations can only last 30 seconds max, and so politicians who want to get their face on the news must sum up their arguments in this time

Leads to an OVERSIMPLIFICATION OF THE ISSUES

Media and Political Campaigns

The Daisy advert was really the turning point in using television as a means to lure voters. A landmark ad. I’ve put the link up on the website if you want to see it.

Management of News Coverage

Candidates are always competing for face time on television – is this diluting their message/position?

Presidential Debates

JFK vs Nixon – one was tv savvy, knew how to work it

Wore a blue shirt

It’s really all about perception – if you look competent, have good answers, are unfazed by attacks on your opponent, the American voter will be attracted

Political Campaigns and the Internet

How many people have received some sort of political email in the past 3 weeks?

Candidates are becoming more internet-savvy…

Gerstein said the Lamont crew "did a brilliant job of using technology to build a support base and organize a campaign" in the primary. The campaign benefited from its own and a nationwide crop of independent blogs , from e-mail fund-raising and volunteer-drafting efforts, as well as from a general Internet buzz that catapulted a political unknown into a contender against an internationally recognized three-term incumbent . "Ten years from now it will probably be looked at as a model for how campaigns will be run," Gerstein predicted. Soon, he said, voters will receive get-out-to-the-polls text messages on their cell phones on election day.

Media’s Impact on Voters

Very hard to quantify

Some people are more affected by tv ads than others – some are blasé about it

Government Regulation of the Media

Telecommunications Act (1996) – meant that companies could own more than one type of media enterprise (phones, internet, movies, cable, etc)

Led to…

Media Conglomerates – Clearchannel, NBC Universal, Bertelsmann, Time Warner, Viacom, Walt Disney Company

FCC wanted to expand those rules, let media conglomerates run amok and amass media markets everywhere – is this good?

Govt control of Content – FCC and American Family Association